Matt, no amount of hand-waving will convince people when there is ample evidence of negative SEO, including meticulous case studies published online.
As well, the very fact that Google has given in and introduced the disavow tool, it is incontrovertible proof that negative SEO is effective.
Google had a good run but you have not been able to keep up with those who have striven day and night to beat your algos. The question is, can google play catch up? and do so in time?
Several billions of dollars are riding on that question.
The disavow tool is not "incontrovertible proof" that negative SEO is effective. We introduced the disavow tool for people who had trouble cleaning up their own spammy/bad linkbuilding and weren't able to get every bad link removed from the web before doing reconsideration requests. Please go back to read our original announcement at http://googlewebmastercentral.blogspot.com/2012/10/a-new-too... to confirm that was the primary purpose.
By the way lingben, I just took one of the most passed-around examples where someone claimed that negative SEO worked and debunked that blog post here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5815658
Can you confirm that the disavow tool is automatic? Or do people need to file a reconsideration request? Is the answer different depending on whether there is a manual penalty or an algorithmic decrease in rank/trust?
I ask because you recommended it for people who are concerned about potential negative SEO, and I'm want to be clear on how that works. I think there is certainly a perception that a reconsideration request is some sort of admission of guilt, and I can imagine people being reticent to file one if they weren't responsible for the links in question.
The disavow tool is automatic for any algorithmic rankings (such as Penguin and Panda).
If you have a manual webspam action, then you should get a notice after you verify your site at google.com/webmasters . In the case of a manual webspam action, our advice is try to get any spammy links that you put on the web taken down. If there are some spammy links that you can't get taken down off the web, you can use the disavow tool for those remaining links and then do a reconsideration request.
Matt, the disavow tool is most certainly incontrovertible proof that negative SEO works. Why? Because whether a "spammy" link has been created by a website's own misplaced SEO efforts or through that of a third party which wishes them ill, the effects are the same: a negative effect in ranking.
We know from google that "spammy links" can and do indeed negatively effect rankings - this is why google has provided website owners the ability to 'clean up their act' in the first place
But it does not matter who created the link, the effect is the same, hence, negative SEO works.
Where you rank, why you rank, etc. with Google is never explained. This used to be effective in the old days, but they have lost the edge. Instead of focusing on providing excellent search results, Google has focused on trying to draw in all parts of the internet to personalize search. This is where I think Google has lost the focus on quality.
I would disagree. We have to remember that the size of the web has changed by an order of magnitude since Google first launched. Doing a good job of web search has become proportionally as difficult. Furthermore, we all interact with search engines far more than we used to, and I think we have a tendency not to notice the searches we do that are immediate and effective and focus on those that are imperfect.
I work full time in SEO, and so I don't say any of this lightly. I have a lot of problems with the way Google sometimes does things, and I see a lot of imperfect results. However, it certainly isn't fair to say they "used to be effective in the old days" with the implication they aren't effective any more. They absolutely are effective, and are certainly more effective than the competition.
Your comment on tendency to notice imperfection is correct.
Do you think that working in SEO keeps an arms race going with Google? SEOs find something to exploit, Google does something to counteract. This process leads to unintended consequences throughout the "order of magnitude" system.
My point is more directed to Google trying to include "quality" indicators that having nothing really to do with finding things on the internet.
Yet, I cannot quantify those indicators since Google never spells them out. lol
Folks who work in SEO have to ferret those indicators out and develop plans to take advantage of them.
Furthermore, we all interact with search engines far more than we used to
Interesting claim. Is it based on hard data, or just a personal view? I ask because my impression is the opposite.
As a surfer, I find myself doing less searching with Google and more either going to likely reference sites like Wikipedia and searching there directly or finding new material via trusted blogs and forums like HN.
For sites I help to run, we actively try to prevent any single traffic source becoming dominant, whether that is Google or Facebook or anyone else. Visits from search engines (or at least those we can diagnose as such) are now only a minority for most sites I know about personally. This is definitely just anecdotal, though: all of those sites are relatively small/niche, and it could be that for example social referrals have a disproportionate effect at our scale that might not be seen with big sites getting orders of magnitude more traffic than we do.
As well, the very fact that Google has given in and introduced the disavow tool, it is incontrovertible proof that negative SEO is effective.
Google had a good run but you have not been able to keep up with those who have striven day and night to beat your algos. The question is, can google play catch up? and do so in time?
Several billions of dollars are riding on that question.